In a small café in Cẩm Phả, Quảng Ninh, the familiar rumble of coal trucks has grown faint. Groups of miners sit quietly over coffee, debating a future without the industry that sustained them for generations. This quiet uncertainty is spreading across Việt Nam’s coal heartlands as the nation pivots toward its Net Zero 2050 target and the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).
For thousands of workers, this energy transition has become a pressing question of survival. The social stakes behind Việt Nam’s journey away from coal are immense, requiring a path forward that navigates the complex dynamics between local economies, retraining efforts, national policies, and the lived experiences of those most affected.
An Uncertain Future in Việt Nam’s Coal Heartlands
Quảng Ninh, long recognized as Việt Nam’s coal hub, is undergoing a subtle but significant transformation. As production declines, some pits are left underutilized, and companies have begun reducing shifts.
An estimated 77,000 to 111,000 workers are directly employed in the sector. Still, many, especially low-skilled miners and operational staff, are at risk of job loss or income reduction, as noted in a Vietnam News report. Retraining opportunities also remain limited, leaving them with an uncertain future.
This anxiety is palpable among the workforce. “Young workers at power plants that are forced to shut down because of old equipment and low efficiency run the risk of losing their jobs, which would reduce their income and have an impact on their family’s economy, family life, and social life,” said Vũ Đức Việt, a factory worker at Đông Triều Thermal Power Company in Quảng Ninh.
The economic effects ripple far beyond the mines. Boarding houses, small eateries, and transport services—once sustained by steady mining wages—are now feeling the strain as local markets shrink.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned that without a carefully managed transition, coal-dependent communities in Việt Nam and across Southeast Asia could face severe economic disruption and significant job losses.
The World Bank adds that the decline of such industries threatens not only incomes but also social cohesion and community networks. In response, some local authorities have begun exploring retraining programs, small-scale tourism, and clean energy projects. However, these efforts remain fragmented and insufficient to absorb the displaced workforce.
Shifting an Entire Local Economy
In Quảng Ninh, the coal industry is a major source of employment and the backbone of local identity. As production slows, its decline creates both an economic and an emotional void.
Boarding houses that once hosted miners now stand half-empty, and small eateries see fewer customers. Truck drivers who hauled coal struggle to find steady work, and young people are leaving mining towns like Cẩm Phả and Uông Bí for jobs in Hà Long or Hà Nội.
According to research, the reduction of coal output could affect hundreds of thousands of jobs tied to mining-related services and supply chains, unraveling a way of life passed down through generations.
Local authorities are attempting to respond by diversifying Quảng Ninh’s economy. Tourism, light manufacturing, and renewable energy have been identified as the new pillars of growth, with the province pushing projects like the Ha Long–Cẩm Phả coastal route and offshore wind farms.
However, development agencies caution that without carefully planned livelihood programs, this transition risks leaving workers behind, creating “winners and losers” rather than shared prosperity.
Lessons from other countries reinforce this concern and offer a potential roadmap. In Indonesia, community-based retraining and investment funds have cushioned job losses, while South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan allocates billions to support affected workers, showing that a successful transformation requires proactive planning that anticipates social disruption, rather than reacting to it.
Policy Gaps and Opportunities for a Just Transition
Việt Nam has made ambitious commitments to decarbonization, joining the global pledge toward net zero by 2050 and signing the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). Yet a clear divide remains between these national goals and the reality for the thousands of workers in the country’s coal regions.
While the term “just transition” is common in policy discussions, its implementation remains largely undefined. The country has yet to establish a dedicated financial mechanism for worker retraining, a comprehensive social safety framework for affected households, or a formal role for local governments, which often lack the resources and authority to craft meaningful plans. Without deeper participation from provinces like Quảng Ninh, national policy risks staying top-down and disconnected from people’s realities.
Other countries, however, offer a blueprint for bridging this gap. South Africa’s Just Transition Framework sets clear targets and allocates funding for worker re-skilling, municipal support, and small business recovery. Similarly, Indonesia’s Energy Transition Mechanism links the early retirement of coal plants with reinvestment in clean energy and community development.
These models show that an equitable transition demands not only funding but also governance structures built on local participation and trust.
For Việt Nam, a national Just Transition Fund—drawing on state, private, and international contributions—could support these same goals. Handled wisely, Việt Nam’s move away from coal could become more than a climate milestone; it could be a story of renewal where workers and communities stand as partners in building a sustainable future. But whether the country seizes this moment depends on one crucial step: turning policy ambition into lived reality.
Toward a Truly Just Transition
A truly just energy transition in Việt Nam must begin with its people. In Quảng Ninh Province, where generations have lived by the rhythm of the mines, the question is not whether change will come, but whether it will come with compassion.
This means creating new futures and opportunities for coal workers that must help families rebuild their sense of place and purpose. This can be achieved by reskilling miners for emerging sectors like renewable energy and logistics, and by diversifying the local economy through eco-tourism, clean manufacturing, and community-based renewable projects.
But these initiatives will only succeed if they are backed by sustained funding, create local demand, and respect the identity of the region’s mining towns.
Communities cannot be passive spectators in their own transformation. Meaningful participation through open dialogue and local oversight is essential to prevent the alienation that often accompanies rapid change.
When people are partners in shaping their future, the foundation for a just transition takes root. If Việt Nam’s success is measured only by the rise of green power plants while thousands of miners are left behind, the transition cannot be called sustainable. A just future demands both cleaner energy and shared dignity for those who once powered the nation.
Việt Nam’s energy transition is not simply an environmental imperative—it is a human one. Beyond carbon targets and clean technologies lies the fundamental question of fairness: who bears the cost of progress, and who reaps its benefits?
The challenge ahead is to balance ambition with empathy, ensuring the workers and communities who once unearthed the energy of the past are given the chance to help build Việt Nam’s green future. If successful, this transition could become a model for sustainable growth that leaves no one behind.
