Donald Trump’s “Transactional Politics,” Unlikely a Blessing for Democracy in Vietnam (or Taiwan)
China and other autocrats will benefit more from Trump’s “rich man politics.”
General Secretary of the Communist Party Nguyen Phu Trong, who has held Vietnam’s most powerful position for over 13 years and who has overseen a relentless crackdown on civil society during his tenure, passed away in Hanoi in the early afternoon on July 19 in Hanoi, aged 80. His death was due to his “old age and severe illness,” the official announcement declared. A state funeral for the late party chief is scheduled for July 25 and 26.
A day earlier, Trong had withdrawn from his official duties to focus on treating his ailing health, according to an announcement of the Politburo. The notice did not specify his health condition. Still, it said the party had “directed a team of medical professors, doctors, and other leading experts to create the most favorable conditions for the treatment and health care of the general secretary.”
Nguyen Phu Trong has been in declining health for several years, especially after he assumed an unprecedented third term as the Party chief, breaking the Communist Party’s limit of two terms. In April 2019, he suffered from a stroke during a visit to the southern province of Kien Giang and was reportedly hospitalized for several weeks.
The party chief is mainly known for his anti-corruption legacy, dubbed the “blazing furnace,” which led to the discipline, resignation, arrests, and imprisonment of thousands of party members and government officials.
Earlier this year, in January, the Communist Party general secretary also disappeared from public view, prompting concerns over his well-being. While Trong’s attendance at the opening of a National Assembly session on Jan. 15 eased rumors regarding his frail health, the instability of the Party ideologue’s health led to speculation about who might succeed him to assume the chairmanship once he was not healthy enough to take the helm of the Communist Party.
In the public announcement discussing Trong’s health, the Politburo also declared that it had assigned President To Lam to oversee the official duties and general tasks of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat - which the party chief initially managed. Lam, a public security official who led the national police force, ascended to the presidency in May this year following the dismissals of two of his predecessors over alleged corruption scandals.
On July 18, the Politburo awarded Nguyen Phu Trong the Golden Star Medal, the highest-ranking badge dedicated to senior Party leaders, at Central Military Hospital 108, reaffirming the party chief’s worrisome health conditions. Generally, this medal has been given to deceased leaders of the Communist Party, with only a few exceptions. According to the announcement, the Party bestowed Trong with this honor due to his “outstanding performance for the revolutionary cause of the party and the nation.”
Another critical aspect of his passing is the lack of transparency and details regarding the health conditions of the state leaders. In Vietnam, the health of officials is considered “confidential,” and the public often remains in the dark about whether or not those leaders are physically and mentally fit to lead the country. Decision 1295/QD-TTg, signed into effect by former Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, lists the medical records and health examination results of the Politburo and the Party Central Committee Secretariat members as a “state secret.”
U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Marc Knapper on July 19 expressed his condolences upon the passing of Nguyen Phu Trong, hailing him as a “visionary leader who for decades served as a bridge between Vietnam and the United States of America.” “The United States will forever be grateful for General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng’s leadership in promoting peace, stability, and prosperity,” Ambassador Knapper wrote. “We hold our relationship with Vietnam in the highest regard, and we look forward to working closely with President Tô Lâm and all Party, State, and National Assembly leadership.”
Vietnam has rejected allegations of discrimination against two Montagnards, Y Khiu Nie and Y Si Eban, on the grounds of religious freedom in a letter sent to the United Nations dated July 9. The Vietnamese permanent mission in Geneva, in the letter responding to a joint communication of four UN experts on freedom of religion and belief and arbitrary detention, claimed that accusations of harassment, repression, and arbitrary detention of ethnic minorities in the country were “distorted and false information” shared by “extremist” foreign organizations.
Previously, the Vietnamese authorities banned Y Khiu Nie and Y Si Eban, two Montagnard religious freedom and human rights defenders, from attending the Southeast Asia Freedom of Religion or Belief Conference in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022.
When Nie boarded the plane on Nov. 6, he was informed that he did not meet the vaccination and COVID-19 PCR test requirements, although the activist already had his vaccination certificate. He proposed the authorities give him a quick COVID-19 test to prove his condition, but the request was denied. The immigration police arrested Eban and took him into custody after he was already in the passenger area on the same day.
Both Montagnard religious adherents were subsequently taken to a police building in Dak Lak Province, where they were held and interrogated for hours without the presence of their lawyers before being released the next day. The police also forced Eban to terminate his teaching of the Bible, renounce his membership in the indigenous religious group Evangelical Church of Christ of the Central Highlands, and refrain from attending house church activities. He also suffered from physical assaults, which left his face with multiple injuries.
Hanoi has denied the arbitrary detention and physical assaults of the two religious adherents, calling them “baseless allegations.” Vietnam’s response added that the questioning of two indigenous men is “a normal activity of the Vietnamese police to invite citizens to cooperate and provide information to clarify certain events” and, therefore, it “does not require the presence of a lawyer.” The government said that the exit ban on Nie stemmed from his lack of a COVID-19 vaccination certificate and that Eban was prohibited from leaving the country for “national defense and security” reasons.
China has opposed Vietnam’s recent request to the United Nations to extend the territorial boundaries of its continental shelf in the South China Sea beyond the limit of 200 nautical miles, which could give Hanoi access to natural resources and control of the trade routes that pass through this strategic waterway. The Philippines, one of the South China Sea territorial claimants, has previously filed the same request to claim the continental waters off its eastern coast.
According to the South China Morning Post, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on July 18 that Hanoi’s submission regarding its continental shores extension is an infringement and violation of China’s “territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.” He also dismissed Vietnam's request as “meaningless” and stated that the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) would not review a submission if “there is a land or maritime dispute in the area.”
After Manila made a similar move in June, Vietnam’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Hanoi is willing to discuss the settlement of their overlapping territorial claims of the disputed South China Sea continental shelf with the Philippines. The Philippines, in return, announced that it was ready to hold talks with Vietnam to find a mutually beneficial agreement to the maritime dispute under international law.
CIVICUS Report Continues Rating Civic Space in Vietnam as ‘Closed’: The South Africa-based civil society monitor CIVICUS rates Vietnam’s civic space as “closed” in a report released on July 18. The report notes that Vietnam has continued to silence and restrict the movement of human rights defenders, journalists, and bloggers under national security laws despite the country’s recent Universal Periodic Review on May 7. At the same time, the regime has repressed worker rights to assembly with the arrests of labor unionists who led the efforts to ratify ILO Convention 87, which could enable laborers to form independent unions without state authorization.
Radio Free Asia/ Zachary Abuza/ July 19
“Today, five of the 16 [Vietnamese Communist Party's Politburo] members came out of the Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security, with three coming out of the army. That half the Politburo represents the security sector, with a palpable dearth of economic expertise, is evidence of the party’s priorities for the nation of 100 million people.
Under Trong, the government stepped-up efforts to quash Vietnam’s nascent civil society, focusing, in turn, on religious organizations, lawyers, environmentalists, LGBTQ activists, independent journalists and social media influencers.”
Fulcrum/ Le Hong Hiep and Nguyen Khac Giang/ July 19
“An uncertain succession is arguably the greatest lapse of [Nguyen Phu] Trong’s otherwise remarkable tenure. His legacies, most notably the anti-corruption campaign, will greatly depend on his successor’s approach. However, irrespective of who succeeds Trong, major changes to Vietnam’s economic and foreign policy should not be expected. Ultimately, preserving the Party’s rule will be the new leader’s main priority, much like it was for Trong. The next leader will have much to glean from Trong’s successful strategies, which have substantially contributed to Vietnam’s rise and the CPV’s political legitimacy.”
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