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Within 10 months after U.S. President Donald Trump took office, his administration has challenged countless norms of the U.S. government with decisions that undeniably resemble an oligarchy and authoritarian regime.

From firing federal workers in functions not aligned with corporate interests, deporting non-citizen students and scholars whose political ideology does not align with the administration’s, to threatening academic freedom at universities, the signs are alarming to any observer.

Anne Applebaum wrote in The Atlantic that what Trump and his close advisors are doing is simply “regime change.” Indeed, these decisions eerily resemble what happens in authoritarian regimes like Việt Nam, China, and Russia, and not the American political system that has, for most of history, consistently emphasized democratic values.

The impact of Trump’s authoritarianism is not just felt within the United States. His radical trade policies, which include imposing a ridiculously calculated tariff system on partners and adversaries alike, mean that many countries - especially those in manufacturing-heavy Asia - are looking to diversify from trade with the US. While this will have severe consequences for the global economy, it also upends the American soft power system, which traditionally relies on economic influence to negotiate with countries like Việt Nam on human rights issues.

With the blatant disregard for human rights and the rule of law, Trump 2.0 is setting a dangerous example for Việt Nam. This article explores the potential impact on Việt Nam from three fronts: the rising pro-corporate agenda globally, the rise of China and the failure of the American value system, and the decline of academic freedom and the NGO sector.

The Global Pro-Corporate Agenda and Implications for Việt Nam Under the guise of “government efficiency,” the Trump administration - with the consultation of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) - has shifted the priorities in Washington from sustaining a workforce of bipartisan civil servants to a pro-corporate, partisan value system. The administration has done this through axing “non-essential” government agencies, such as the USAID, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and other agencies that are not directly aligned with corporate interests.

Beyond the grim domestic implications, Washington’s reform of political priorities will impact Việt Nam as well.

Firstly, the Trump administration is promoting corporate interests above anything else, setting a dangerous model for leaders in Việt Nam. Communist Party of Việt Nam's General Secretary To Lam is already known to be a proponent of private sector development, which by itself is positive, as the private sector is a crucial driver of economic growth.

However, under a system where freedom of the press is extremely limited, the public’s influence over holding corporations accountable is also limited. Combined with an undemocratic one-party system, in which officials are incentivized to side with the powerful elites rather than with their own people, it is reasonable to be concerned about a rising oligarchy - not just in the United States, but also in Việt Nam.

As a developing country, leaders in Việt Nam have already been under intense pressure to minimize public waste through firing inefficient government workers and catering to the private sector.

Trump’s prioritization of the private sector might exacerbate Việt Nam’s powerful conglomerates, which are known to get away with policies and actions that harm average citizens - from Sun Group blatantly destroying the environment, to VinGroup cooperating with the police to summon the company’s critics to intimidate them.

Secondly, it is not just Vietnamese companies that are getting richer and more powerful. In a bid to appease the Trump administration, the Vietnamese government granted exemptions to Elon Musk’s SpaceX to open a subsidiary in Việt Nam with full foreign ownership - an unprecedented decision in the telecom sector, which is known to be extremely sensitive.

For reference, the only companies allowed to offer telecom services in Việt Nam are all state-owned, such as Viettel and MobiFone, which are under the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Public Security, respectively.

In a system where the police and the military are the most powerful, Việt Nam giving such an exemption of its usual foreign ownership requirements shows the government’s eagerness to appeal to Trump (although the Trump administration still decided to slap a 40 percent tariff on Việt Nam despite Hanoi bending over backward to appease the U.S.).

The example highlights a very clear implication of Trump’s policy on Việt Nam: U.S. companies hoping to succeed in Việt Nam have to cater to the Trump administration, which will do its own bidding to curry new favors from foreign governments for these corporations.

The Rise of China and the Failure of American Values Packed with political loyalists, the second Trump administration has been a lot more aggressive with its political goals compared to Trump 1.0, including the announcement of the absurdly calculated system of tariffs earlier this year.

While Việt Nam got out of Trump 1.0 unscathed, this time Việt Nam has been hit with a 40% tariff - one of the highest worldwide. However, it was not just Việt Nam; other U.S. partners and allies in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, and India, have also been hit hard with Trump’s tariffs.

At the same time, China’s President Xi Jinping began reaffirming the country’s “neighborhood diplomacy.” In his first foreign trip in 2025, he went to Việt Nam to court the country’s support, emphasizing that there are “no winners” in a trade war. In response, Trump said that Việt Nam and China are discussing how to “screw” the United States.

Trump’s vulgar remark is an overreaction, but he might be worried for a reason. Việt Nam is unlikely to abandon its close relationship with the United States - a relationship which brings in a lot of money for the country’s economy - but it (and many other countries in Asia) might be forced into China’s orbit of influence if they get the sense that the United States is abandoning them, which is what Trump’s tariffs feel like to these countries.

In the words of the Wall Street Journal’s board of editors: “Whatever else you might say about President Trump’s trade war, it’s ushering in new economic and diplomatic opportunities—for China.”

Việt Nam being driven even closer to China, combined with the Trump administration’s blatant disregard of American soft power and values, is going to have grave implications for human rights and democracy in Việt Nam.

Since the U.S.-Việt Nam normalization of diplomatic relations in 1995, the US has used its economic influence to pressure Việt Nam away from curbing free speech and jailing political dissidents. Even though Việt Nam abused human rights anyway, there has always been an understanding that the US would disapprove of Việt Nam’s actions, and that the US would try to get political dissidents released, usually by moving them to the US. There has always been an understanding that human rights and democracy are core tenets of U.S. diplomacy.

In other words, Việt Nam is going to have much less pressure on its already-abhorrent human rights track record. Reduced U.S. economic influence on Việt Nam, Trump’s refusal to uphold American values in diplomacy, and Washington’s increasing focus on advancing corporate interests could well result in an increasingly authoritarian Việt Nam.

The Decline of Academic Freedom and the NGO Sector Within the first few weeks of his administration, Trump has threatened to cut funding from top educational institutions - including Harvard, Columbia, Yale, and Cornell - if these institutions refused to comply with his administration’s political agenda.

Under the guise of national security, the Trump administration ordered the deportation of green card holders and foreign nationals who were found engaging in pro-Palestinian campus protests - including a PhD student from Tufts, whose only engagement was writing an article on the university’s student publication website.

This is going to be a stain on the U.S. record of defending free speech, which will make any of its future criticisms of undemocratic countries like Việt Nam and China extremely hypocritical. Unironically enough, these actions are eerily similar to the playbook of the Communist Party of Việt Nam and China, which are known to target students, scholars, and writers who hold opposing views.

This curbing of academic freedom also came with the Trump administration’s dissolution of several important institutions and reduction of foreign aid to non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It will likely result in a significant decline of the NGO sector, which has served as an important check-and-balance mechanism to the Vietnamese government, especially in issues related to climate change, clean energy transition, poverty reduction, and the rule of law.

Among Trump’s targets of dissolution or defunding, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), and Radio Free Asia (RFA) were important institutions that advanced the U.S. pro-democracy and human rights agenda abroad.

Not all of them are treated the same by the Vietnamese government: USAID has maintained an official presence in Việt Nam, the Vietnamese government views USIP favorably due to its work in legacy-of-war rebuilding, but both the NED and the RFA have been met with skepticism and blatant hostility.

Regardless of how they are viewed by the Vietnamese government, these institutions have been pivotal in supporting pro-democracy advocacy as well as NGO work in Việt Nam and beyond. Organizations such as the Legal Initiatives for Vietnam, the Vietnamese Magazine’s parent organization, have also benefited from the financial and intellectual support of these institutions.

I am writing this article today not to be an alarmist, but rather to highlight the importance of an independent press and NGOs, and the importance of your support, during this difficult moment of uncertain U.S. and global politics, for the maintenance and advancement of their important work.

Is U.S. Policy in Việt Nam Strengthening Authoritarian Rule?

Son Nguyen

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